Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 3.653711 3.997834 4.400215 4.917630 5.585768 6.453825 7.738627
2024-12-15 3.206121 3.626234 4.158041 4.917117 6.051888 7.876924 11.752182
2024-12-22 2.888177 3.322497 3.895943 4.765085 6.192887 8.898003 17.415813
2024-12-29 2.756535 3.227033 3.876596 4.929945 6.875230 11.584160 61.475445
2025-01-05 2.560291 3.017148 3.658798 4.727997 6.805643 12.513666 NaN
2025-01-12 2.396614 2.835844 3.459389 4.516617 6.641577 13.048769 NaN
2025-01-19 2.285052 2.717809 3.340591 4.420508 6.691671 14.560946 NaN
2025-01-26 2.245186 2.697034 3.364798 4.576274 7.384634 21.619807 NaN
2025-02-02 2.230320 2.709893 3.440998 4.843000 8.553972 58.901093 NaN
2025-02-09 2.174889 2.657869 3.406047 4.884060 9.115266 NaN NaN
2025-02-16 2.128420 2.615850 3.382971 4.944921 9.818424 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 2.046627 2.515423 3.253298 4.756012 9.447612 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 1.998116 2.466821 3.213935 4.773618 10.028224 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 1.947001 2.411718 3.159509 4.750383 10.452812 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 1.882855 2.333251 3.058877 4.606377 10.199542 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 1.865108 2.326179 3.082856 4.759125 11.715347 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 1.803612 2.247220 2.973128 4.571515 11.051894 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.743956 2.169464 2.862595 4.374489 10.292136 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.701875 2.118300 2.797728 4.284672 10.176652 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.693296 2.119724 2.827099 4.430164 11.725153 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.696133 2.139318 2.890896 4.678403 14.901254 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.674369 2.117976 2.876732 4.716515 16.438846 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.655640 2.100809 2.869327 4.772959 18.649395 NaN NaN